22 0 obj Routledge This is an advanced counterintelligence tradecraft and assumes integration and steering of ones overall sensors and response toolkit with regard to a particular actor and beyond. 185 555 0 R 186 555 0 R 187 555 0 R 188 556 0 R 189 557 0 R Publicly attributing cyber attacks: a framework But does public attribution truly lead to a better deterrence posture and make countries a less attractive target? /Parent 2 0 R This presents a valuable opportunity: to co-opt the collection methods of a foreign intelligence service to receive the same raw information being collected on targets of interest to the latter or ideally both intelligence services; this practice is known as fourth-party collection. Juan Andrs Guerrero-Saade and Costin Raiu, Walking in your enemys shadow: When fourth-party collection becomes attribution hell, Virus Bulletin Conference, (2017, October), https://media.kasperskycontenthub.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2018/03/07170728/Guerrero-Saade-Raiu-VB2017.pdf. /Font 906 0 R Is the operation part of a broader campaign? Cybersecurity and the Age of Privateering, Cyberattacks: a look at evidentiary thresholds in International Law. This is to ensure that the maximum strategic value can be gained by the use of the means, rather than to be pushed into a responsive stance by adversarial action. Herbert S. Lin, Attribution of Malicious Cyber Incidents: From Soup to Nuts, Journal of International Affairs 70/1 (2016). 26 0 obj First, we constructs a cyber security knowledge graph for . 2 For an excellent overview see: Thomas Rid and Ben Buchanan, Attributing Cyber Attacks, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 38/12 (2015), 437; David D. Clark and Susan Landau, Untangling attribution, in Committee on Deterring Cyberattacks (ed. Free and Honest EstimatesNorth Jersey Areas. /Creator (Arbortext Advanced Print Publisher 11.0.3433/W Unicode) If the disclosed information, however, supports an actors chosen identity construction, then it is likely to be perceived as positive, as the actors self-image is strengthened. 341 [592 0 R 593 0 R 594 0 R 595 0 R 596 0 R 597 0 R 598 0 R 599 0 R 600 0 R 601 0 R However, the suitability of these preferences is moderated by the presence of accuracy goals. /Parent 2 0 R /Parent 2 0 R A Tentative Study, Cyber Warfare Now Tales from the Digital Battlefield, NON-STATE ACTORS IN CYBERSPACE OPERATIONS, Non-kinetic hybrid threats in Europe -the Portuguese case study (2017-18. >> 36 0 obj Cybersecurity and Humanitarian Organizations On a Collision Course? Public attribution is a means towards an end. /Subject (Journal of Strategic Studies, 2021. doi:10.1080/01402390.2021.1895117) Register to receive personalised research and resources by email. /Parent 2 0 R 54 0 obj 40 0 obj The lack of an effective Western response betrays not tolerance of aggression but a failure to devise a response strategy commensurate with the legal and doctrinal ambiguities of unpeace. endobj Instead, we sought to discuss the set of factors that require careful deliberation for any government when they consider public attribution.84 Our general argument is that public attribution is a highly complex process which requires trade-offs of multiple considerations. handling and follow-on actions). 471 0 R 472 0 R 473 0 R 474 0 R] intelligence See for example: Kartin Kinzelbach and Julian Lehmann, Can Shaming Promote Human Rights? An Enhanced Cyber Attack Attribution Framework Lecture Notes in Computer Science ( 89 306 ), , 213-228. Like previous era-defining technologies, global digital networks have changed state violence. /Parent 6 0 R 887 0 R 888 0 R 889 0 R 890 0 R 891 0 R 892 0 R 893 0 R 894 0 R 895 0 R 896 0 R /Annots [348 0 R 349 0 R 350 0 R 351 0 R 352 0 R 353 0 R 354 0 R 355 0 R 356 0 R 357 0 R Greater public knowledge of attacks will lead to greater public acceptance that countermeasures should be taken. Effective public attribution not only necessitates a clear understanding of the attributed cyber operation and the cyber threat actor, but also the broader geopolitical environment, allied positions and activities, and the legal context. 82 On October 15, EU foreign ministers also adopted a new regime of restrictive measures at a meeting in Luxembourg against a new regime of restrictive measures against those who use or develop chemical weapons or those who assist to do so, regardless of nationality. Sanders-Zakre, Russia Charged With OPCW Hacking Attempt. An interim solution must be found instead in the development of new doctrine-in a consequentialist strategy that affects adversaries' material interests to deter actions which international law and security strategy do not ordinarily recognize as deserving a strong response. . We distinguish between the goals an actor is pursuing and four categories - intelligence, incident severity, geopolitical context, and post-attribution actions - that act as enablers or constraints upon these goals. >> >> /Rect [300.33 554.704 450.41 564.074] /A 932 0 R /TrimBox [0 0 442.205 663.307] One would be more adept in publicly calling out acts that demarcate the type of activity one would not be interested in engaging in oneself or its close allies, as for example acts of industrial espionage, election hacking, or more disruptive intrusions against critical infrastructure during peacetime. << Overview questions enablers and constraints for public attribution. Third, the geopolitical situation inevitably plays a role in public attribution decision-making. >> What is the relationship between cyber activities conducted by Russia at home and abroad? /Rotate 0 Is public attribution legally necessary to implement a follow-on response? /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] As one slides down the scale of state responsibility, it becomes harder to publicly attribute offensive cyber operations to a state, for at least two reasons. /Resources 259 0 R If either there was less evidence that GRU officers were behind the attempted intrusion or if the information was obtained in a different manner (for example, the Dutch being in the computer systems of the GRU and having gathered information in this manner), a similar public display would have been much harder. What is the impact on the legitimacy and status of the attacker? Does it help to create a community of network defenders and a coalition of attribution states? 305 623 0 R 306 624 0 R 307 625 0 R 308 626 0 R 309 626 0 R As Anne Neuberger, then Director of the NSAs Cybersecurity Directorate, states about the NSA openly attributing the exploitation of a vulnerability to the Russian military intelligence service GRU, we chose to do it because we see that it makes targeted network owners more quickly patched and secure and build the resilience of their systems. endobj /Im11 908 0 R /TrimBox [0 0 442.205 663.307] /CropBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] 330 [709 0 R 710 0 R 711 0 R 712 0 R 520 0 R 520 0 R 713 0 R 521 0 R] Matching an offender to an offence is an exercise in minimising uncertainty on three levels: tactically, attribution is an art as well as a science; operationally, attribution is a nuanced process. /Author (Florian J. Egloff) Furthermore, selectively revealing certain tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used in the cyber operation may positively affect visibility. 10.1080/01402390.2021.1895117 The growing relevance of this question is partially due to the fact that states have become better at attributing cyber operations.1 Attribution is and remains a tedious process.2 But, contrary to conventional wisdom, a lot of the significant cyber activity has been attributed. Footnote 25 If the existing legal framework creates a threshold so high that states have no prospect of attributing responsibility for a cyber armed attack, states will be effectively precluded from any lawful response, including self-defense. This also implies that more public attribution is not always better. /Type /Metadata Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: Publicly attributing cyber attacks: a framework, Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH, Zrich, Switzerland, Everything You Know about the Vulnerability Equities Process Is Wrong, Named but Hardly Shamed: The Impact of Information Disclosures on APT Operations, Introduction to the Human Rights Strategy, Covert or Not Covert: National Strategies during Cyber Conflict, Paper presented at the 2019 11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon), 305 Car Registrations May Point to Massive GRU Security Breach, Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for US Policy, Cyber Operations as Imperfect Tools of Escalation, Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing A Novel Escalation Risk in A U.S.-China Crisis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, , Facing off and Saving Face: Covert Intervention and Escalation Management in the Korean War, The U.S. Vulnerabilities Equities Process: An Economic Perspective, NSA Cybersecurity Directorates Anne Neuberger on Protecting the Elections, U.S. Charges 7 Russian Intelligence Officers With Hacking 40 Sports And Doping Groups, Policy Roundtable: Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest, Grey Is the New Black: Covert Action and Implausible Deniability, Russia Accused of Cyber-attack on Chemical Weapons Watchdog, Conducting Case Study Research in Sociology, Heartbleed: Understanding When We Disclose Cyber Vulnerabilities, Russia Hack: Taxi Receipts to Lager Cans The Trail of Evidence Left by Spies Who Tried to Attack the Chemical Weapons Watchdog, The Politics of Cybersecurity: Balancing Different Roles of the State, Netherlands Defence Intelligence and Security Service Disrupts Russian Cyber Operation Targeting OPCW, From Secrecy to Accountability: The Politics of Exposure in the Belgrano Affair, Strategic Aspects of Cyberattack, Attribution, and Blame, Cybersecurity and Non-State Actors: A Historical Analogy with Mercantile Companies, Privateers, and Pirates, Contested Public Attributions of Cyber Incidents and the Role of Academia, Attribution and Knowledge Creation Assemblages in Cybersecurity Politics, The Cornell Commission: On Morris and the Worm, Signalling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands Versus Sinking Costs, Constructing Norms for Global Cybersecurity, Beyond Naming and Shaming: Accusations and International Law in Cybersecurity, International Norm Dynamics and Political Change, The Fait Accompli and Persistent Engagement in Cyberspace, Persistent Engagement and Cost Imposition: Distinguishing between Cause and Effect, The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace Back down to Earth, Cyber Conflict in Political Science: A Review of Methods and Literature, Joint Statement by Prime Minister May and Prime Minister Rutte on Cyber Activities of the Russian Military Intelligence Service, the GRU, Walking in Your Enemys Shadow: When Fourth-party Collection Becomes Attribution Hell, Beyond Attribution: Seeking National Responsibility for Cyber Attacks, The Escalation Inversion and Other Oddities of Situational Cyber Stability, The End of the Road for the UN GGE Process: The Future Regulation of Cyberspace, Animal Farm APT and the Shadow of French Intelligence, How Probable Is Cyber War? /Tabs /S 125 522 0 R 126 523 0 R 127 524 0 R 128 524 0 R 129 525 0 R The actual disruption depends on the defensive uptake of the information, and the ease with which the operational tactics, techniques, and procedures can be adapted to evade such defensive practices. 635 0 R] /Type /Page /Rotate 0 /Type /Annot Building a New Framework. Authors endeavour to contribute to understanding of these changes and the emerging paradigm. >> The paper examines these implications, including: The effect of transparency on perception of conflict. 20/20 Vision: The Next Decade. /Type /Annot We define public attribution as the act to publicly disclose information about the malicious cyber activity to a machine, specific perpetrator, and/or ultimately responsible adversary.14 We argue that public attribution is a highly complex process which requires trade-offs of multiple considerations. 342 [608 0 R 609 0 R 761 0 R 610 0 R 611 0 R 612 0 R 613 0 R 614 0 R 615 0 R 616 0 R Thus, to optimally profit from such an intelligence gain, the teams analyzing actors using similar operational techniques, or, where knowledge about other actors relies heavily on similar investigative techniques, ought to be pre-briefed about the imminent disclosure. 124 0 R 125 0 R] Grey Is the New Black: Covert Action and Implausible Deniability, International Affairs 94/3 (2018), 47794. What is the geopolitical timing of the public attribution act? Existing law and norms are a source of the problem, not its solution. 1 Popular culture and high-profile incidents in recent years do little to curb the apparent validity of such claims. 11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict. Does the public attribution lead to an enhanced defensive posture? /Resources 113 0 R 327 [699 0 R 511 0 R 700 0 R 701 0 R 512 0 R 512 0 R 702 0 R 513 0 R] Notice. /Type /Page /Parent 2 0 R >> In this paper, the author suggests that a framework establishing categories of incidents and possible responses could be helpful in avoiding actions in cyberspace that would unintentionally push states to engage in armed conflict. There is no linear relationship between the different equities. << /Annots [167 0 R 168 0 R 169 0 R 170 0 R 171 0 R 172 0 R 173 0 R] /ColorSpace 925 0 R We define public attribution as the act to publicly disclose information about the malicious cyber activity to a machine, specific perpetrator, and/or ultimately responsible adversary.14 We argue that public attribution is a highly complex process which requires trade-offs of multiple considerations. /Parent 6 0 R See: Max Smeets and Robert Gorwa, Cyber Conflict in Political Science: A Review of Methods and Literature, 2019 ISA Annual Convention (Toronto, 2019, March). This subsection discusses the four main enabling or constraining factors of public attribution: intelligence, incident severity, geopolitics, and response (i.e. The idea is that public attribution may help to demarcate what is deemed to be appropriate behavior and can help ensure the adversary conforms to it. /Tabs /S 138 0 R] Effective public attribution not only necessitates a clear understanding of the attributed cyber operation and the cyber threat actor, but also the broader geopolitical environment, allied positions and activities, and the legal context. The authors detailed examples of public attribution, application, and deterrence of cyber-attacks in the . 15 This article assumes that decision makers do not intentionally want to misattribute or misidentify adversaries. The Western approach to cyber conflict prevention emphasizes the centrality of existing international law and norms. Salisbury response). Effective public attribution not only necessitates a clear understanding of the attributed cyber operation and the cyber threat actor, but also the broader geopo litical environment, allied positions and activities, and the legal context. For example, in the joint press conference by the Dutch and the British, UK Ambassador Peter Wilson attributed not only the OPCW and Salisbury incidents, but also activities against the MH-17 investigation in Malaysia to one of the GRU officers involved, Yevgeniy Serebriakov.78, This also informs the last dimension of the Public Attribution Framework: handling and follow-on actions. /Border [0 0 0] /Annots [151 0 R 152 0 R 153 0 R 154 0 R 155 0 R] 32 Florian J. Egloff and Max Smeets, "Publicly Attributing Cyber Attacks: A Framework," Journal of Strategic Studies (forthcoming). This re-establishes state-to-state symmetry and enables a wider range of options open to sovereign nations: diplomatic, intelligence, military, and economic responses.36, Table 1. It simplifies in that it tries to address a complex issue into just a few factors to consider for a government. /Type /Page >> 43 For a similar distinction see: Ben Buchanan, The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics (Harvard University Press 2020), 44 For more detailed discussion on intended effect and how to control it: Raymond, David, Gregory Conti, Tom Cross and Robert Fanelli, A Control Measure Framework to Limit Collateral Damage and Propagation of Cyber Weapons, in: K. Podins, J. Stinissen, M. Maybaum (Eds. /Annots [114 0 R 115 0 R 116 0 R 117 0 R 118 0 R 119 0 R 120 0 R 121 0 R 122 0 R 123 0 R /Type /Page The stray sheep of cyberspace a.k.a. Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? /Resources 100 0 R /H /I This concl Journal of Information Technology & Politics. 839 0 R 840 0 R 841 0 R 842 0 R 843 0 R 844 0 R 845 0 R 846 0 R 847 0 R 848 0 R An actor, now knowing it is observed, might change its operations, stay silent for a period of time, or even completely abandon its activity. 25 Erica D. Borghard and Shawn W. Lonegran, The Logic of Coercion in Cyberspace, Security Studies 26/3 (2017), 4528; Adam P. Liff, Cyberwar: A New Absolute Weapon? We propose decision makers attitude towards public attribution is one of strategic, coordinated pragmatism. /Marked true Show details . It is equally driven by governments' ongoing desire to shape the political and normative environment of cyber operations, vis-a-vis the realization that few measures have worked in the past. endobj /Subtype /Link /H /I /Tabs /S /CropBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] << >> /Rotate 0 321 [488 0 R 489 0 R 492 0 R 492 0 R 490 0 R 657 0 R 658 0 R 659 0 R 491 0 R] 190 557 0 R 191 557 0 R 192 558 0 R 193 559 0 R 194 559 0 R 100 514 0 R 101 514 0 R 102 515 0 R 103 515 0 R 104 516 0 R /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] Special thanks go to two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped us sharpen our argument further. "@egflo @Maxwsmeets "Publicly attributing cyber attacks: a framework", 2021, Provides (policy) framework for state-level public attribution, https://t.co/8dAonPkCLe" /Annots [] Interestingly, a research group at Columbia University examined the impact of disclosures on nine APT groups.28 One of their main conclusions was that, If the disclosures discussed in the case studies were intended to deter similar future behavior, they unequivocally failed. /CropBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] /CropBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] endobj Despite these high levels of attribution certainty, there was little if any intelligence loss for the UK or Dutch intelligence services.71, Overall, the type of intelligence gathered made it much easier for the Dutch government to disclose publicly Russias activities through a press conference. /StructTreeRoot 7 0 R /Rect [106.6 256.831 125.16 265.822] /Type /Page A key part of the use of active defense measures is the ability of one state to hold another state . 743 0 R 742 0 R 744 0 R 745 0 R 744 0 R 746 0 R 553 0 R 554 0 R 555 0 R] The Politics of Cybersecurity: Balancing Different Roles of the State, St Antonys International Review 15/1 (2019), 3757. endobj /MediaBox [0.0 0.0 442.205 663.307] << /Tabs /S When should states publicly attribute cyber intrusions? >> 757 0 R 589 0 R 758 0 R 590 0 R 591 0 R 759 0 R] /Parent 2 0 R Cybersecurity and the Age of Privateering, Cyberattacks: a look at evidentiary thresholds in International Law. /S /Document 17 The nature of this process largely explains why most states and decisionmakers typically opt for an eclectic approach toward public attribution and characterization, even at the expense of some inconsistency in how they approach these issues from one case to another. >> /Contents 239 0 R /Annots [176 0 R 177 0 R 178 0 R 179 0 R 180 0 R 181 0 R 182 0 R 183 0 R 184 0 R 185 0 R] By using our site, you agree to our collection of information through the use of cookies. www.tandfonline.com In our discussion of the individual categories, we use the ceteris paribus assumption, that is all other things held constant. (CyCon), The transnational nature of cyberspace alters the role of third-party countries (TPCs) in international conflict. /H /I Authors endeavour to contribute to understanding of these changes and the emerging paradigm. >> << /Rotate 0 << Thereby, we acknowledge that when responding to a particular intrusion, a government is likely to work through the enabling or constraining categories to prepare the response options serving the goals. The stray sheep of cyberspace a.k.a. Second, the larger international audience should be considered. 1 Attribution is -and remains -a tedious process. 195 560 0 R 196 561 0 R 197 561 0 R 198 562 0 R 199 563 0 R /Tabs /S The Netherlands thus contributes to combating impunity in the digital domain.4. The national government conducts the operation using cyber forces under their direct control. /Type /Page Knowing who is responsible for the cyber intrusion is another.34 Healey has developed a spectrum assigning ten categories of state responsibility for a particular intrusion, shown in Table 1.35 According to Healey, [t]he global national security community needs to shift resources from the technical attribution problem to solving the responsibility problem. States are understandably reluctant to reveal their thinking on this issue because they do not wish to encourage cyber misbehaviour below that threshold. /Contents 219 0 R This bibliography was originally compiled by Liisi Adamson and is maintained by The Hague Program on International Cyber Security - please send any additions or suggestions to info@thehagueprogram.nl. uuid:d56da41f-cb5f-4a52-8943-bab7fde2cb0e 56 0 obj Whatever the context, disclosing what you know to an adversary always has downsides, as Aitel and Tait note.37 Public attribution might provide insights into a governments attribution sources and methods; it possibly tells the adversary what you are capable of seeing. >> A day later, when the officers rented a car to begin initial reconnaissance around the OPCW headquarters, the Dutch intelligence received information from their British counterparts that Russians are potentially attempting a close access hack of the OPCW computer networks.70, On April 13, the Dutch counter-intelligence officers apprehended the Russian officers when they parked their vehicle close to the OPCW headquarters, confiscating all their electronic equipment, including mobile phones, Wi-Fi antenna, a computer, a transformer and specialist hacking equipment. /TrimBox [0 0 442.205 663.307] This question has become increasingly important for decision making. We expand on their work here. Also, there is tension between the various factors we discuss in the article. The goals of cyber operations range from espionage, subversion, to outright destruction.43 Within these classes of activity, there are some activities that are deemed more legitimate, even legal under international law, as most states engage in similar activities. Journal Has the intelligence value of observing the intruder been maximized? /Title (Appendix) Another principle objective of public attribution could be coercion, that is to deter or to compel.21 Deterrence is conventionally defined as dissuading an adversary from doing something by threatening him with unacceptable punishment if he does it.22 In turn, compellence refers to one of two objectives: to get an adversary to do something (s)he has not yet, or to stop an activity undertaken by an adversary.23 Coercion is one of the topics which has received the most attention in the cyber conflict.24 Yet, most scholars are critical about the potential to deter or compel adversarial cyber activity.25 Still, one could argue that public attribution could support coercive efforts both directly or indirectly. (eds), 11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict: Silent Battle, 2019, TECHNICAL EXPLOITATION IN THE GRAY ZONE: EMPOWERING NATO SOF FOR STRATEGIC EFFECT, 2021 13th International Conference on Cyber Conflict, CEPI FGV Direito SP, Bruna Toso de Alcntara, VANESSA CRAVO, Jean-Pierre Darnis, Cristian Barbieri, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, "Silent Battle" Goes Loud: Entering a New Era of State-Avowed Cyber Conflict, The better angels of our digital nature? Let us start by examining the potential goals of Dutch authorities decision to go public. >> The policy challenge is increasingly moving from identifying who is behind a cyber intrusion to finding the adequate policy response, including whether to publicly attribute. Section 28.3 looks at different types of politically relevant cyber-operations, describing hacktivism, cyber-crime , cyber-espionage , cyber-terrorism and cyber-war , among others. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/stopping-next-cyber-conflict. /Rotate 0 The growing relevance of this question is partially due to the fact that states have become better at attributing cyber operations. The dynamics of public attribution are still poorly understood. 319 [645 0 R 482 0 R 483 0 R 483 0 R 646 0 R 647 0 R 648 0 R 483 0 R 483 0 R 649 0 R /Parent 2 0 R The unprecedented transparency shown by the Netherlands intelligence services in exposing Russian GRU officers in October 2018 is indicative of a number of new trends in state handling of cyber conflict. /Suspects false 650 0 R 484 0 R] That common understanding must include shared intentions about appropriate responses to cyber incidents, especially in relation to determining which cyber operations are likely to elicit aggressive responses and which are considered part of the cost of doing business in international relations. 31 CBS News, NSA Cybersecurity Directorates Anne Neuberger on protecting the elections, (19 August 2020), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nsa-cybersecurity-directorates-anne-neuberger-on-protecting-the-elections/, 32 Egloff, Public Attribution of Cyber Intrusions. 33 0 obj /Filter /FlateDecode This paper uses case studies to illustrate the nature of this departure and consider its impact, including potentially substantial implications for state handling of cyber conflict. This may extend to public preparedness to accept that a state of declared or undeclared war exists with a cyber aggressor. If this private dialogue does not have the intended effect, Actor B could publicly disclose the details of the intrusion, sending a signal to Actor A about the importance of the issue and willingness to raise the stakes. /Resources 157 0 R Equally, when a government has limited evidence to link an operation or campaign to a state it reduces the incentives for public attribution. 343 0 R 344 0 R 345 0 R] X[hjPWmG_^aP />yzl1J`q5 sdF{DmGwpD9-IlLO,ayyxa#>c07irk62G1D'>g$?r;n3\jNOs't=IfPvd0Yx+1Yi4#Fy>B%G }QG\;S1Ir`+18Q_Lp6~ft p9+nvYg)=J+kMD]yYii@/SN'z~p%q{K#CO~w6jYB:8OJqm?

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